perm filename HOTER.XGP[1,JMC] blob
sn#833396 filedate 1987-01-27 generic text, type T, neo UTF8
/LMAR=0/XLINE=3/USET=88␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ ∧←THE HOME INFORMATION TERMINAL
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ ¬
John McCarthy, Stanford University
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT␈↓αAbstract:␈↓␈αThe␈αreal␈α"computer␈αrevolution"␈αhasn't␈αhappened␈αyet,␈αbecause␈αpeople␈αdon't␈αyet␈αuse
␈↓ α∧␈↓computers␈α
in␈α
their␈α
daily␈α
lives.␈α
When␈α
most␈α
people␈α
have␈α
␈↓↓home␈↓␈α
␈↓↓computer␈↓␈α
␈↓↓terminals␈↓␈α
with␈α
access␈α
to␈α
all
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α
world's␈α
public␈α
information,␈α
it␈α
will␈α
revolutionize␈α
the␈α
way␈α
we␈α
conduct␈α
our␈α
personal␈α
business,␈α
the
␈↓ α∧␈↓way␈αwe␈αlearn␈αnew␈αskills,␈αthe␈αway␈αwe␈αread,␈αthe␈αway␈αinformation␈αis␈αpublished␈αand␈αsold,␈αthe␈αconduct
␈↓ α∧␈↓of political and other controversy, and how we decide what to buy.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α∞technology␈α∞for␈α∞␈↓↓information␈↓␈α∞␈↓↓utilities␈↓␈α∞serving␈α∞home␈α∞computer␈α∞terminals␈α∞is␈α∞already␈α∞here
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α
cheap␈α
enough␈α
and␈α
will␈α
get␈α
much␈α
cheaper,␈α
but␈α
the␈α
organizational␈α
problems␈α
of␈α
creating␈α
new
␈↓ α∧␈↓public utilities are formidable.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThis␈α
paper␈α
treats␈α
the␈α
services␈α
that␈α
can␈α
be␈α
offered,␈α
why␈α
people␈α
will␈α
want␈α
them,␈α
why␈α
they␈α
are
␈↓ α∧␈↓important␈αsocially,␈αthe␈αrelevant␈αtechnology␈αand␈αits␈αcosts,␈αsome␈αsocial␈αproblems␈αassociated␈αwith␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓new␈α
technology␈α
-␈α
especially␈α
the␈α
problem␈α
of␈α
minimizing␈α
monopoly,␈α
and␈α
some␈α
relevant␈α
experience
␈↓ α∧␈↓and experiments at Stanford University.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|1␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ ε¬INTRODUCTION
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThere␈α∂has␈α∂been␈α∂a␈α∂scientific␈α∂and␈α∂technological␈α∂"computer␈α∂revolution",␈α∂but␈α∂it␈α∂hasn't␈α∂much
␈↓ α∧␈↓affected␈α∂daily␈α∂life␈α∂except␈α∂to␈α∂improve␈α∂living␈α∂standards␈α∂by␈α∂making␈α∂goods␈α∂and␈α∂services␈α∂with␈α∂less
␈↓ α∧␈↓labor.␈↓∧1␈↓
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTSince␈αWorld␈αWar␈αII,␈αthe␈αtechnology␈αof␈αtransforming␈αinformation␈αhas␈αbecome␈αever␈αcheaper
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α∞more␈α∞powerful.␈α∞ It␈α∞will␈α∞keep␈α∞getting␈α∞cheaper␈α∞-␈α∞if␈α∞only␈α∞because␈α∞the␈α∞technology␈α∞of␈α∞integrated
␈↓ α∧␈↓circuits␈α∞is␈α∞far␈α∞from␈α∞using␈α∞up␈α∞the␈α∞engineering␈α∞possibilities␈α∞offered␈α∞by␈α∞the␈α∞science␈α∞on␈α∞which␈α∞it␈α∞is
␈↓ α∧␈↓based.␈α The␈αadvance␈αin␈αthe␈αqualitative␈αpossibilities␈αof␈αtransforming␈αinformation␈αis␈αalso␈αlarge,␈αbut
␈↓ α∧␈↓progress requires continued conceptual advance.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTComputer␈α
technology␈α
now␈α
makes␈α
possible␈α
new␈α
services␈α
that␈α
will␈α
give␈α
us␈α
new␈α
significant␈α
new
␈↓ α∧␈↓options in our daily lives.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTWithin␈α
the␈α
twenty␈α
years␈α
and␈α
beginning␈α
within␈α
the␈α
next␈α
five,␈α
the␈α
home␈α
computer␈α
terminal
␈↓ α∧␈↓will␈α∃revolutionize␈α∃the␈α∃way␈α∃we␈α∃conduct␈α∃our␈α∃personal␈α∃business␈α∃as␈α∃much␈α∃as␈α∃the␈α∃automobile
␈↓ α∧␈↓revolutionized␈α
the␈α
way␈α
we␈α
get␈α
around.␈α
It␈α
will␈α
also␈α
revolutionize␈α
the␈α
way␈α
information␈α
is␈α
distributed
␈↓ α∧␈↓in our society, and this will have substantial effects on politics and education.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α
terminal␈α
itself␈α
will␈α
be␈α
rather␈α
like␈α
those␈α
already␈α
in␈α
use␈α
by␈α
computer␈α
programmers,␈α
airline
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈αother␈αreservation␈αclerks,␈αetc.␈α consisting␈αof␈αa␈αtypewriter␈αkeyboard␈αand␈αa␈αdisplay␈αfor␈αtext␈αand
␈↓ α∧␈↓ε␈↓ αT1.␈α
The␈α
prevalent␈α
belief␈α
that␈α
technology␈α
is␈α
changing␈α
the␈α
world␈α
faster␈α
and␈α
faster,␈α
and␈α
people
␈↓ α∧␈↓εcan't␈αadapt␈αto␈αit␈α-␈αis␈αwrong.␈α In␈αfact,␈αthe␈αinventions␈αbrought␈αinto␈αuse␈αsince␈αWorld␈αWar␈αII␈αsuch␈αas␈αTV,
␈↓ α∧␈↓εjet␈α
travel␈α
and␈α
the␈α
pill␈α
have␈α
affected␈α
daily␈α
life␈α
much␈α
less␈α
than␈α
those␈α
adopted␈α
between␈α
1890␈α
and␈α
1920
␈↓ α∧␈↓εsuch␈α
as␈α
electric␈α
lights,␈α
piped-in␈α
gas,␈α
telephones,␈α
automobiles,␈α
and␈α
mechanical␈α
refrigeration␈α
affected
␈↓ α∧␈↓εthe␈α
life␈α
of␈α
that␈α
time.␈α
For␈α
most␈α
people,␈α
computers,␈α
nuclear␈α
energy,␈α
lasers,␈α
and␈α
DNA␈α
are␈α
just␈α
names␈α
in
␈↓ α∧␈↓εthe␈α
news,␈α
because␈α
no-one␈α
cares␈α
whether␈α
his␈α
electric␈α
bill␈α
was␈α
prepared␈α
by␈α
a␈α
typist␈α
or␈α
a␈α
computer␈α
or
␈↓ α∧␈↓εwhether the light goes on because of burning coal or fissioning uranium.
␈↓ α∧␈↓ε␈↓ αTSince␈α∪people␈α∪take␈α∪health␈α∪and␈α∪prosperity␈α∩as␈α∪only␈α∪their␈α∪just␈α∪deserts,␈α∪maybe␈α∪the␈α∪lack␈α∪of
␈↓ α∧␈↓εtechnological␈αinnovation␈αin␈αdaily␈αlife␈αcontributes␈αto␈αthe␈αanti-technological␈αintellectual␈αfads.␈α This␈αlack
␈↓ α∧␈↓εis␈αtemporary,␈αbecause␈αcheap␈αinformation␈αprocessing␈αwill␈αlead␈αto␈αmany␈αmore␈αpopular␈αinventions␈αthan
␈↓ α∧␈↓εthose discussed in this paper.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|2␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓pictures.␈α
The␈α
revolution␈α
will␈α
come␈α
not␈α
from␈α
the␈α
terminals␈α
themselves␈α
but␈α
from␈α
the␈α
information
␈↓ α∧␈↓services␈α∞provided␈α∞by␈α∞the␈α∞computers␈α∞to␈α∞which␈α∞the␈α∞terminals␈α∞are␈α∞connected␈α∞and␈α∞by␈α∞the␈α∞access␈α∞to
␈↓ α∧␈↓nation-wide sources of information.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈αpurpose␈αof␈αthis␈αpaper␈αis␈αto␈αoutline␈αthe␈αservices␈αthat␈αcan␈αbe␈αprovided,␈αidentify␈αsome␈αof
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α⊗important␈α⊗effects,␈α⊗describe␈α⊗the␈α⊗necessary␈α⊗technology,␈α⊗and␈α⊗identify␈α⊗the␈α⊗areas␈α⊗in␈α⊗which
␈↓ α∧␈↓institutional␈α∞changes␈α∞will␈α∞be␈α∞forced␈α∞by␈α∞the␈α∞technology.␈α∞ (By␈α∞␈↓↓forced␈↓,␈α∞I␈α∞mean␈α∞that␈α∞institutions␈α∞not
␈↓ α∧␈↓making the changes will go out of business unless new ways of doing business are made illegal).
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ ¬HOME INFORMATION SERVICES
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTVisionaries␈α↔have␈α↔often␈α↔envisaged␈α↔homes␈α↔equipped␈α↔with␈α↔information␈α↔terminals␈α↔each
␈↓ α∧␈↓consisting␈α
of␈α
a␈α
typewriter␈α
keyboard␈α
and␈α
a␈α
screen␈α
capable␈α
of␈α
displaying␈α
one␈α
or␈α
more␈α
pages␈α
of␈α
print
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α∪pictures.␈α∪ The␈α∪terminal␈α∪would␈α∪be␈α∪connected␈α∪by␈α∪the␈α∪telephone␈α∪system␈α∪to␈α∪a␈α∪time-shared
␈↓ α∧␈↓computer␈αwhich␈αin␈αturn␈αhas␈αaccess␈αto␈αfiles␈αcontaining␈αall␈αbooks,␈αmagazines,␈αnewspapers,␈αcatalogs,
␈↓ α∧␈↓airline␈α∞schedules,␈α∞much␈α∞all␈α∞government␈α∞and␈α∞commercial␈α∞information␈α∞subject␈α∞to␈α∞the␈α∞Freedom␈α∞of
␈↓ α∧␈↓Information␈α
Act␈α
and␈α
the␈α
like,␈α
together␈α
with␈α
any␈α
information␈α
the␈α
citizen␈α
himself␈α
wishes␈α
to␈α
keep,␈α
e.g.
␈↓ α∧␈↓his␈αcorrespondence,␈αbills␈αpaid,␈αmedical␈αrecords,␈αinsurance␈αpolicies,␈αand␈αserial␈αnumbers␈αof␈αpersonal
␈↓ α∧␈↓property.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThrough␈α
the␈α
terminal␈α
the␈α
subscriber␈α
can␈α
get␈α
any␈α
information␈α
he␈α
wants,␈α
can␈α
buy␈α
and␈α
sell,
␈↓ α∧␈↓can␈α⊂communicate␈α⊂with␈α⊂persons␈α⊂and␈α⊂institutions,␈α⊂can␈α⊂receive␈α⊂and␈α⊂pay␈α⊂his␈α⊂bills␈α⊂and␈α⊂taxes,␈α⊂and
␈↓ α∧␈↓process information in other useful ways.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT1. Reading
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTWe␈α⊂can␈α⊂start␈α⊂with␈α⊂ordinary␈α⊂reading.␈α⊂ To␈α⊂get␈α⊂a␈α⊂newspaper␈α⊂or␈α⊂book,␈α⊂I␈α⊂type␈α⊂its␈α⊂name␈α⊂or
␈↓ α∧␈↓number and the first page appears. The most obvious benefits are:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|3␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$1.1.␈α
I␈α
can␈α
get␈α
any␈α
document␈α
instantly.␈α
Since␈α
the␈α
desire␈α
to␈α
read␈α
a␈α
particular␈α
book␈α
or
␈↓ α∧␈↓article is often fleeting, much more will be read if access is guaranteed and immediate.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$1.2.␈α My␈α
house␈α
isn't␈α
full␈α
of␈α
paper␈α
to␈α
be␈α
sorted␈α
and␈α
put␈α on␈α
shelves␈α
and␈α
dusted␈α
or␈α
put␈α
in
␈↓ α∧␈↓the trash. Trees aren't cut down, and air pollution doesn't result from burning the stuff.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTSome immediately apparent disadvantages are:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$1.3. The expense. I'll deal with this later.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$1.4.␈α∀I␈α∀can't␈α∀read␈α∀in␈α∀bed.␈α∀ The␈α∀book-size␈α∀portable␈α∀terminal␈α∀will␈α∀come␈α∀later.␈α∀ A
␈↓ α∧␈↓household␈α∪may␈α∪require␈α∪several␈α∪terminals,␈α∪and␈α∪until␈α∪the␈α∪book-terminal␈α∪is␈α∪available,␈α∪we␈α∪will
␈↓ α∧␈↓probably have to compromise with ecological sin and provide a printer.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThere are two other immediate negative reactions:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$1.5.␈α The␈αaverage␈αcitizen␈αis␈αa␈αTV␈αfan␈αand␈αdoesn't␈αread␈αanyway.␈α In␈αthe␈αfirst␈αplace,␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓home␈α
terminal␈α
system␈α
doesn't␈α
need␈α
more␈α
than␈α
a␈α
small␈α
minority␈α
of␈α
the␈α
population␈α
as␈α
subscribers␈α
to
␈↓ α∧␈↓be␈α∞economical,␈α∞so␈α∞if␈α∞you␈α∞read,␈α∞you␈α∞will␈α∞benefit␈α∞whether␈α∞he␈α∞does␈α∞or␈α∞not.␈α∞ Secondly,␈α∞after␈α∞I␈α∞have
␈↓ α∧␈↓described␈αall␈αthe␈αbells␈αand␈αwhistles,␈αyou␈αwill␈αsee␈αthat␈αeven␈αthe␈αTV␈αfan␈αwill␈αbe␈αtempted,␈αand␈αyou␈α-
␈↓ α∧␈↓oh␈α∩socially␈α∩conscious␈α∩reader␈α∩-␈α∩may␈α∩even␈α∩want␈α∩to␈α∩coerce␈α∩him␈α∩into␈α∩buying␈α∩one␈α∩or␈α∩coerce␈α∩the
␈↓ α∧␈↓government into giving him one for free.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$1.6.␈α
How␈α
can␈α
you␈α
think␈α
of␈α
one␈α
more␈α
convenience␈α
and␈α
comfort␈α
when␈α
the␈α
world␈α
will
␈↓ α∧␈↓come␈αto␈αan␈αend␈αin␈αten␈αyears␈αunless␈αmenaces␈αA,␈αB,␈αand␈αC␈αare␈αdealt␈αwith␈αimmediately?␈α In␈αthe␈αfirst
␈↓ α∧␈↓place,␈αI␈αdon't␈αthink␈αthe␈αworld␈αis␈αabout␈αto␈αcome␈αto␈αan␈αend␈αor␈αeven␈αthat␈αit␈αis␈αgetting␈αworse.␈α In␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓second␈α
place,␈α
you␈α
will␈α
see␈α
that␈α
the␈α
new␈α
information␈α
system␈α
will␈α
make␈α
the␈α
public␈α
more␈α
responsive␈α
to
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α
careful␈α
reasoning␈α
of␈α
you␈α
good␈α
guys␈α
and␈α
more␈α
immune␈α
to␈α
the␈α
blatant␈α
propaganda␈α
of␈α
those␈α
bad
␈↓ α∧␈↓guys.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTIn␈α
order␈α
to␈α
see␈α
some␈α
of␈α
the␈α
social␈α
effects␈α
of␈α
the␈α
new␈α
information␈α
system,␈α
suppose␈α
that␈α
all
␈↓ α∧␈↓book and newspaper information were so distributed. What changes would occur?
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|4␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTAt␈αpresent,␈αa␈αnewspaper,␈αmagazine␈αor␈αbook␈αis␈αa␈αpackage␈αproduced␈αby␈αa␈αlarge␈αorganization.
␈↓ α∧␈↓With␈α⊃the␈α⊃information␈α⊃utility,␈α⊃the␈α⊃physical␈α⊃production␈α⊃and␈α⊃distribution␈α⊃disappears,␈α⊃allowing␈α⊃a
␈↓ α∧␈↓much␈αsmaller␈αorganization␈αto␈αput␈αout␈αthe␈αsame␈αpackages␈αof␈αtext␈αand␈αpictures.␈α Moreover,␈αthe␈αuser
␈↓ α∧␈↓does␈α
not␈α
face␈α
a␈α
one␈α
shot␈α
decision␈α
to␈α
buy␈α
␈↓↓Time␈↓␈α
or␈α
␈↓↓Newsweek.␈↓␈α
He␈α
will␈α
be␈α
able␈α
to␈α
read␈α
the␈α
"cover"␈α
or
␈↓ α∧␈↓table␈α
of␈α
contents␈α
of␈α
each,␈α
read␈α
such␈α
items␈α
as␈α
strike␈α
his␈α
fancy,␈α
and␈α
the␈α
system␈α
will␈α
bill␈α
him␈α
for␈α
what
␈↓ α∧␈↓he␈α
reads␈α
from␈α
each␈α
source.␈α
In␈α
fact,␈α
since␈α
the␈α
cost␈α
of␈α
keeping␈α
a␈α
file␈α
of␈α
information␈α
in␈α
the␈α
computer
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α
making␈α
it␈α
publicly␈α
available␈α
will␈α
be␈α
small,␈α
even␈α
a␈α
high␈α
school␈α
student␈α
could␈α
compete␈α
with␈α
the
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓↓New␈↓␈α⊂␈↓↓Yorker␈↓␈α⊂if␈α⊂he␈α⊂could␈α⊂write␈α⊂well␈α⊂enough␈α⊂and␈α⊂if␈α⊂word␈α⊂of␈α⊂mouth␈α⊂and␈α⊂mention␈α⊂by␈α⊂reviewers
␈↓ α∧␈↓brought him to public attention. What, then, is a magazine in the information utility?
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTA␈α
magazine␈α
is␈α
an␈α
organization␈α
that␈α
puts␈α
out␈α
a␈α
list␈α
of␈α
material␈α
it␈α
has␈α
edited␈α
and␈α
recommends
␈↓ α∧␈↓to␈α
its␈α
readers.␈α
It␈α
helps␈α
its␈α
authors␈α
produce␈α
material␈α
that␈α
it␈α
thinks␈α
will␈α
suit␈α
the␈α
readers,␈α
and␈α
it␈α
has␈α
a
␈↓ α∧␈↓financial␈α
arrangement␈α
with␈α
them␈α
about␈α
splitting␈α
the␈α
proceeds.␈α
It␈α
may␈α
or␈α
may␈α
not␈α
have␈α
its␈α
own
␈↓ α∧␈↓computer,␈α
and␈α
it␈α
is␈α
unlikely␈α
that␈α
it␈α
would␈α
be␈α
profitable␈α
for␈α
it␈α
to␈α
own␈α
the␈α
disk␈α
files␈α
from␈α
which␈α
the
␈↓ α∧␈↓"issues"␈αare␈αaccessed␈αby␈αreaders.␈α More␈αlikely,␈αit␈αwould␈αrent␈αspace␈αon␈αpublic␈αutility␈αdisk␈αfiles␈αand
␈↓ α∧␈↓pay the utility to bill its readers.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThere␈αcan␈αbe␈αa␈αwide␈αvariety␈αof␈αmagazines␈αwith␈αdifferent␈αstandards␈αof␈αwriting␈αand␈αediting
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α
different␈α
budgets␈α
for␈α
carrying␈α
out␈α
these␈α
activities.␈α
However,␈α
they␈α
will␈α
be␈α
equally␈α
accessible␈α
to
␈↓ α∧␈↓readers,␈α⊃and␈α⊃an␈α⊃expensive␈α⊃editorial␈α⊃organization␈α⊃will␈α⊃be␈α⊃profitable␈α⊃only␈α⊃if␈α⊃it␈α⊃can␈α⊃produce␈α⊃a
␈↓ α∧␈↓package␈α∂that␈α∂a␈α∂large␈α∂group␈α∂of␈α∂people␈α∂prefers␈α∂to␈α∂the␈α∂bare␈α∂output␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂writers.␈α∂ The␈α∂price␈α∂of
␈↓ α∧␈↓reading a package will be set by the publishers.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTFamous␈α
authors␈α
may␈α
not␈α
need␈α
publishers␈α
because␈α
their␈α
loyal␈α
readers␈α
will␈α
have␈α
the␈α
system
␈↓ α∧␈↓find their stuff automatically.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTA␈α↔common␈α↔complaint␈α↔about␈α↔newspapers␈α↔from␈α↔readers␈α↔and␈α↔reporters␈α↔alike␈α↔is␈α↔their
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|5␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓shallowness.␈α
This␈α
comes␈α
from␈α
the␈α
editorial␈α
necessity␈α
of␈α
producing␈α
a␈α
general␈α
interest␈α
package␈α
every
␈↓ α∧␈↓day.␈α The␈αnew␈αform␈αof␈αpublication␈αwill␈αpermit␈αa␈αreporter␈αspecializing␈αin␈αa␈αcountry␈αor␈αa␈αtopic␈αto
␈↓ α∧␈↓produce␈αarticles␈α
as␈α
long␈α
as␈α
he␈α
pleases␈α
so␈α
long␈αas␈α
he␈α
also␈α
produces␈α
the␈α
short␈α
items␈α
for␈α
the␈α
casual
␈↓ α∧␈↓reader.␈α∞ The␈α∞␈↓↓New␈α∞York␈α∞Times␈↓␈α∞correspondent␈α∞in␈α∞Constantinople␈α∞will␈α∞be␈α∞able␈α∞to␈α∞fully␈α∞satisfy␈α∞the
␈↓ α∧␈↓fans␈α∞of␈α∞Byzantine␈α∞politics,␈α∞and␈α∞there␈α∞needn't␈α∞be␈α∞more␈α∞than␈α∞a␈α∞few␈α∞hundred␈α∞of␈α∞them␈α∞to␈α∞pay␈α∞his
␈↓ α∧␈↓salary.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTA␈αreader␈αmay␈αfeel␈αthat␈αhe␈αneeds␈αhelp␈αin␈αfinding␈αhis␈αway␈αthrough␈αthe␈αtotality␈αof␈αliterature
␈↓ α∧␈↓available␈αto␈αhim.␈α People␈αwill␈αbe␈αeager␈αto␈αmake␈αa␈αliving␈αproviding␈αit.␈α A␈αbookstore␈αor␈αlibrary␈αis␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓program␈αthat␈αshows␈αthe␈α"covers"␈αof␈αpublications.␈α Reviewers␈αwill␈αproduce␈αlists␈αfor␈αhim␈αand␈αmake
␈↓ α∧␈↓money␈α∞when␈α∞he␈α∞reads␈α∞their␈α∞lists␈α∞or␈α∞by␈α∞kickbacks␈α∞from␈α∞the␈α∞publishers.␈α∞ ␈↓↓Reading␈↓␈α∞␈↓↓advisers␈↓␈α∞under
␈↓ α∧␈↓some␈αcatchier␈αname␈αwill␈αoffer␈αto␈αgenerate␈αlists␈αjust␈αfor␈αhim␈αaccording␈αto␈αa␈αprofile␈αof␈αhis␈αinterests.
␈↓ α∧␈↓A␈α
more␈α
exotic␈α
possibility␈α
is␈α
that␈α
programs␈α
may␈α
be␈α
written␈α
to␈α
identify␈α
writings␈α
that␈α
were␈α
liked␈α
by␈α
a
␈↓ α∧␈↓large␈α⊂percentage␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂few␈α⊂science␈α⊂fiction␈α⊂fans␈α⊂who␈α⊂have␈α⊂read␈α⊂them␈α⊂and␈α⊂bring␈α⊂them␈α⊂to␈α⊂the
␈↓ α∧␈↓attention␈α∞of␈α∞a␈α∞much␈α∞larger␈α∞science␈α∞fiction␈α∞public.␈α∞ If␈α∞a␈α∞fraction␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∞science␈α∞fiction␈α∞fans␈α∞were
␈↓ α∧␈↓willing␈α∂to␈α∂look␈α∂at␈α∂a␈α∂random␈α∂sample␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂"slush␈α∂pile"␈α∂of␈α∂new␈α∂writing,␈α∂then␈α∂the␈α∂system␈α∂could
␈↓ α∧␈↓function␈α
without␈α
any␈α
official␈α
editors␈α
at␈α
all.␈α
Presumably␈α
people␈α
who␈α
thought␈α
they␈α
could␈α
tell␈α
writers
␈↓ α∧␈↓how to write better would offer their services directly to the writers.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTAdvertising␈αin␈αthe␈αsense␈αof␈αsomething␈αthat␈αcan␈αforce␈αitself␈αon␈αthe␈αattention␈αof␈αa␈αreader␈αwill
␈↓ α∧␈↓disappear␈αbecause␈αit␈αwill␈αbe␈αtoo␈αeasy␈αto␈αread␈αvia␈αa␈αprogram␈αthat␈αscreens␈αout␈αundesirable␈αmaterial.
␈↓ α∧␈↓However,␈αpeople␈αwill␈αstill␈αwant␈αto␈αknow␈αwhat␈αis␈αfor␈αsale␈αand␈αwill␈αstill␈αwant␈αto␈αsee␈αthe␈αseller's␈αstory
␈↓ α∧␈↓about␈α
why␈α
they␈α
should␈α
buy␈α
it.␈α
Probably,␈α
␈↓↓Time␈↓␈α
will␈α
still␈α
be␈α
able␈α
to␈α
get␈α
money␈α
from␈α
advertisers;
␈↓ α∧␈↓many␈α
people␈α
will␈α
still␈α
want␈α
to␈α
know␈α
what␈α
is␈α
advertised␈α
in␈α
␈↓↓Time,␈↓␈α
but␈α
those␈α
who␈α
don't␈α
want␈α
to␈α
know
␈↓ α∧␈↓will be able to avoid it automatically.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|6␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTAnother␈αeffect␈αis␈αthe␈αpossibility␈αof␈αfrequent␈αrevisions␈αof␈αarticles␈αand␈αbooks.␈α An␈αauthor␈αcan
␈↓ α∧␈↓take␈α∀into␈α∀account␈α∀new␈α∀facts␈α∀or␈α∀other␈α∀people's␈α∀criticisms,␈α∀and␈α∀the␈α∀revision␈α∀will␈α∀take␈α∀effect
␈↓ α∧␈↓immediately.␈α∞ This␈α∞raises␈α∞1984ish␈α∞possibilities,␈α∞so␈α∞it␈α∞must␈α∞be␈α∞provided␈α∞that␈α∞old␈α∞versions␈α∞remain
␈↓ α∧␈↓available.␈α Those␈αwho␈αsuspect␈αthe␈αwhole␈αsystem␈αwill␈αkeep␈αtheir␈αown␈αcopies␈αof␈αfavorite␈αmaterial␈αin
␈↓ α∧␈↓their private files, on microfilm, or even on paper.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTPublic␈α∪controversy␈α∪can␈α∪be␈α∪carried␈α∪out␈α∪more␈α∪expeditiously␈α∪than␈α∪at␈α∪present.␈α∪ If␈α∪I␈α∪read
␈↓ α∧␈↓something␈α⊃that␈α⊃seems␈α⊃controversial,␈α⊃I␈α⊃can␈α⊃ask␈α⊃the␈α⊃system␈α⊃if␈α⊃anyone␈α⊃has␈α⊃filed␈α⊃a␈α⊃reply.␈α⊃ This,
␈↓ α∧␈↓together␈αwith␈αan␈αauthor's␈αability␈αto␈αrevise␈αhis␈αoriginal␈αstatement,␈αwill␈αlead␈αpeople␈αto␈αconverge␈αon
␈↓ α∧␈↓considered positions more quickly than at present even if they do not come to actual agreement.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThis␈α∂ability␈α∂to␈α∂answer␈α∂immediately␈α∂and␈α∂make␈α∂that␈α∂answer␈α∂available␈α∂immediately␈α∂to␈α∂any
␈↓ α∧␈↓reader␈α
of␈α
the␈α
original␈α
statement␈α
will␈α
improve␈α
both␈α
politics␈α
and␈α
journalism.␈α
The␈α
controversial␈α
style
␈↓ α∧␈↓of␈αboth␈αpublic␈αfigures␈αand␈αjournalists␈αis␈αprofoundly␈αcorrupted␈αby␈αtheir␈αpresent␈αability␈αto␈α␈↓↓hit-and-
␈↓ α∧␈↓↓run.␈↓␈α
(Everyone␈α
notices␈α
how␈α
much␈α
more␈α
reasonable␈α
politicians␈α
are␈α
in␈α
small␈α
groups␈α
within␈α
which
␈↓ α∧␈↓dissent␈αcan␈αbe␈αexpressed).␈α When␈αthey␈αknow␈αtheir␈αreaders␈αwill␈αbe␈αable␈αto␈αsee␈αan␈αanswer␈αfrom␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓target␈α
of␈α
their␈α
criticism␈α
they␈α
will␈α
have␈α
to␈α
put␈α
their␈α
arguments␈α
in␈α
ways␈α
that␈α
will␈α
withstand␈α
criticism
␈↓ α∧␈↓rather than merely in ways that have the most immediate effect.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTFreedom␈α∂of␈α∂information␈α∂can␈α∂be␈α∂made␈α∂more␈α∂effective.␈α∂ The␈α∂Freedom␈α∂of␈α∂Information␈α∂Act
␈↓ α∧␈↓requires␈αthat␈αcertain␈αgovernment␈αrecords␈αbe␈αavailable␈αto␈αthe␈αpublic.␈α However,␈αeconomics␈αdictates
␈↓ α∧␈↓that␈α∂this␈α∂information␈α∂is␈α∂available␈α∂in␈α∂reading␈α∂rooms␈α∂usually␈α∂in␈α∂Washington.␈α∂ So␈α∂far,␈α∂the␈α∂main
␈↓ α∧␈↓beneficiaries␈α
of␈α
the␈α
act␈α
have␈α
been␈α
organizations␈α
that␈α
can␈α
afford␈α
full␈α
time␈α
researchers␈α
to␈α
dig␈α
out
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈αinformation␈α
and␈α
legal␈α
staffs␈α
experienced␈α
in␈α
putting␈α
judicial␈αspokes␈α
in␈α
administrative␈α
wheels.
␈↓ α∧␈↓If␈α∩all␈α∩public␈α∩information␈α∩has␈α∩to␈α∩be␈α∩kept␈α∩in␈α∩publically␈α∩accessible␈α∩computer␈α∩systems,␈α∩then␈α∩the
␈↓ α∧␈↓information␈αwill␈αbe␈αnationally␈αavailable.␈α Even␈αbefore␈αhome␈αterminals␈αbecome␈αwidespread,␈αrather
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|7␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓small␈αorganizations␈αand␈αlibraries␈αwill␈αbe␈αable␈αto␈αafford␈αcomputer␈αterminals␈αand␈αsmall␈αamounts␈αof
␈↓ α∧␈↓long␈αdistance␈αconnect␈αtime.␈α Therefore,␈αwe␈αadvocate␈αthat␈α␈↓αit␈αshould␈αbe␈αrequired␈αimmediately␈αthat
␈↓ α∧␈↓αpublic␈αinformation␈αbe␈αstored␈αin␈αremotely␈αaccessible␈αcomputer␈αsystems␈↓.␈α Organizations␈αwill␈αbe
␈↓ α∧␈↓able␈α∞to␈α∞acquire␈α∞suitable␈α∞terminals␈α∞in␈α∞months␈α∞while␈α∞it␈α∞will␈α∞take␈α∞a␈α∞few␈α∞years␈α∞for␈α∞the␈α∞government
␈↓ α∧␈↓agencies to implement putting the information in computer systems.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈αfinancial␈αaspect␈αof␈αwriting␈αwould␈αpresumably␈αbe␈αas␈αfollows:␈αa␈αpiece␈αof␈αwritten␈αmaterial
␈↓ α∧␈↓has␈α∞a␈α∞price␈α∞for␈α∞reading␈α∞it.␈α∞ (This␈α∞price␈α∞may␈α∞be␈α∞zero␈α∞for␈α∞amateur␈α∞writing,␈α∞political␈α∞propaganda,
␈↓ α∧␈↓advertising,␈α
and␈α
for␈α
scientific␈α
journals).␈α
The␈α
reader's␈α
account␈α
is␈α
debited␈α
and␈α
the␈α
account␈α
to␈α
which
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈αmaterial␈αbelongs␈αis␈αautomatically␈αcredited.␈α The␈αreader␈αwill␈αhave␈αthe␈αsystem␈αbalk␈αat␈αwhat␈αhe
␈↓ α∧␈↓considers overpriced material.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTTo␈αsummarize:␈αthe␈αinformation␈αutility␈αwill␈αpromote␈αintellectual␈αcompetition␈αby␈αreducing␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓price␈α
of␈α
entry,␈α
will␈α
permit␈α
readers␈α
to␈α
be␈α
selective,␈α
and␈α
will␈α
allow␈α
authors␈α
to␈α
revise␈α
material␈α
until
␈↓ α∧␈↓they␈αare␈αsatisfied␈αthat␈αit␈αwithstands␈αcriticism␈αas␈αwell␈αas␈αit␈αever␈αwill.␈α This␈αshould␈αmake␈αintellectual
␈↓ α∧␈↓life more interesting.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α
object␈α
of␈α
these␈α
remarks␈α
is␈α
not␈α
to␈α
make␈α
a␈α
precise␈α
prediction␈α
of␈α
what␈α
will␈α
happen␈α
but
␈↓ α∧␈↓rather␈α∩to␈α∩show␈α∩that␈α∩the␈α∩new␈α∩technology␈α∩will␈α∩support␈α∩a␈α∩much␈α∩wider␈α∩variety␈α∩of␈α∩institutional
␈↓ α∧␈↓arrangements than presently exists.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT2. Effects on commerce and bureaucracy
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈αnew␈αinformation␈αsystem␈αwill␈αhave␈αa␈αprofound␈αeffect␈αon␈αbuying␈αand␈αselling.␈α Sellers␈αof
␈↓ α∧␈↓movies,␈α
groceries,␈α
automobiles,␈α
plumbing␈α
services␈α
and␈α
cures␈α
for␈α
baldness␈α
will␈α
find␈α
it␈α
advantageous
␈↓ α∧␈↓to␈α
list␈α
their␈α
wares␈α
in␈α
the␈α
information␈α
system␈α
together␈α
with␈α
current␈α
prices␈α
and␈α
availability.␈α
The
␈↓ α∧␈↓user can place an order through the system as he can by telephone, but he can do much more:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$2.1.␈α
If␈α
bills␈α
are␈α
"mailed"␈α
through␈α
the␈α
information␈α
system␈α
and␈α
saved␈α
away␈α
in␈α
the␈α
user's
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|8␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓private␈α
files,␈α
when␈α
he␈α
is␈α
ready␈α
to␈α
pay,␈α
they␈α
can␈α
be␈α
presented␈α
one␈α
at␈α
a␈α
time␈α
and␈α
he␈α
can␈α
type␈α
Y␈α
or␈α
N
␈↓ α∧␈↓according␈α
to␈α
whether␈α
he␈α
wants␈α
to␈α
pay␈α
the␈α
bill␈α
now␈α
and␈α
the␈α
money␈α
will␈α
be␈α
transferred␈α
immediately
␈↓ α∧␈↓to the payee, and all necessary records will be kept.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$2.2.␈α⊂He␈α⊂can␈α⊂deal␈α⊂with␈α⊂federal,␈α⊂state,␈α⊂local␈α⊂and␈α⊂business␈α⊂bureaucracies␈α⊂through␈α⊂his
␈↓ α∧␈↓terminal.␈α
Thus␈α
he␈α
can␈α
get␈α
the␈α
rules␈α
governing␈α
dog␈α
licenses,␈α
fill␈α
out␈α
the␈α
forms,␈α
and␈α
pay␈α
for␈α
the
␈↓ α∧␈↓license␈αthrough␈αthe␈αterminal.␈α Incidentally,␈αinstead␈αof␈αputting␈αthe␈αsame␈αinformation␈αon␈αdozens␈αof
␈↓ α∧␈↓forms␈α each␈α
year,␈α
he␈α
can␈α
have␈α
common␈α
pieces␈α
of␈α
information␈α
like␈α
his␈α address␈α
entered␈α
automatically;
␈↓ α∧␈↓i.e.␈α
when␈α
the␈α
automated␈α
questionaire␈α
says␈α
ADDRESS,␈α
he␈α
types␈α
OK,␈α
and␈α
his␈α
program␈α
transmits
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α
address,␈α
and␈α
when␈α
the␈α
questionaire␈α
transmits␈α
"MOTHER'S␈α
MAIDEN␈α
NAME",␈α
he␈α
types␈α
NO,
␈↓ α∧␈↓and his program transmits "None of your business!".
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$2.3.␈α He␈αcan␈αcall␈αon␈αsomeone's␈αprogram␈αto␈αscan␈αthe␈αsellers␈αof␈αsports␈αcars␈αand␈αpropose
␈↓ α∧␈↓what␈α
it␈α
considers␈α
the␈α
best␈α
deal.␈α
This␈α
program␈α
might␈α
even␈α
negotiate␈α
with␈α
programs␈α
representing
␈↓ α∧␈↓the sellers.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$2.4.␈α He␈αcan␈αtell␈αthe␈αsystem␈αwhether␈αlast␈αyear's␈αcure␈αfor␈αbaldness␈αworked␈αand␈αa␈αget␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓summary␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∀opinions␈α∀of␈α∀those␈α∪who␈α∀bothered␈α∀to␈α∀record␈α∀their␈α∀opinions␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∀cure␈α∀he
␈↓ α∧␈↓contemplates trying now.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$2.5.␈αHe␈αcan␈αmake␈αan␈αairplane␈αor␈αhotel␈αreservation␈αby␈αinteracting␈αwith␈αa␈αprogram␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓airline␈αor␈αhotel␈αreservation␈αcompany␈αhas␈αwritten␈αto␈αtell␈αhim␈αwhat␈αis␈αavailable.␈αHe␈αneed␈αnot␈αsuffer
␈↓ α∧␈↓the delays you now get when you call an airline or travel agent at peak hours.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$2.6.␈α∞Individual␈α∂design␈α∂and␈α∂construction␈α∂services␈α∂can␈α∂be␈α∞offered␈α∂through␈α∂the␈α∂system
␈↓ α∧␈↓although␈α⊃this␈α⊃requires␈α⊃the␈α⊃development␈α⊃of␈α⊃computer␈α⊃controlled␈α⊃manufacturing␈α⊃techniques␈α⊃for
␈↓ α∧␈↓various␈α∂types␈α∂of␈α∂article.␈α∂The␈α∂idea␈α∂is␈α∂that␈α∂automated␈α∂design␈α∂programs␈α∂can␈α∂produce␈α∂designs␈α∂for
␈↓ α∧␈↓articles␈αmeeting␈αindividual␈αspecifications.␈α Either␈αby␈αhimself␈αor␈αin␈αconsultation␈αwith␈αan␈αexpert,␈αan
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|9␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓individual␈αwould␈αuse␈αthe␈αsystem␈αto␈αproduce␈αa␈αdesign␈αand␈αdisplay␈αhow␈αit␈αwould␈αlook␈αand␈αpossibly
␈↓ α∧␈↓how␈α∪it␈α∪would␈α∪perform.␈α∪ Candidates␈α∪for␈α∪individual␈α∪design␈α∪include␈α∪clothing,␈α∪furniture,␈α∪boats,
␈↓ α∧␈↓electronic␈αequipment,␈αhouses,␈αand␈αeven␈αcars.␈α The␈αsystem␈αwould␈αthen␈αproduce␈αthe␈αinstructions␈αfor
␈↓ α∧␈↓controlling␈α
machine␈α
tools,␈α
fabric␈α
cutters,␈α
and␈α
also␈α
printed␈α
instructions␈α
for␈α
the␈α
hand␈α
parts␈α
of␈α
the
␈↓ α∧␈↓operation.␈α In␈αgeneral,␈αit␈αshould␈αbe␈αpossible␈αto␈αmake␈αsingle␈αobjects␈αat␈αlittle␈αmore␈αcost␈αthan␈αpresent
␈↓ α∧␈↓mass␈α∂produced␈α∂objects.␈α∂ In␈α∂some␈α∂cases,␈α∂there␈α∂would␈α∂even␈α∂be␈α∂savings,␈α∂because␈α∂mass␈α∂production
␈↓ α∧␈↓requires␈αestimates␈αof␈αdemand␈αthat␈αare␈αoften␈αwrong␈αresulting␈αin␈αinventories␈αthat␈αare␈αexpensive␈αto
␈↓ α∧␈↓sell or even have to be sold at a loss; the cost of this is made up by a general increase in prices.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTMany␈α
more␈α
useful␈α
services␈α
can␈α
be␈α
offered␈α
through␈α
the␈α
new␈α
information␈α
system␈α
and␈α
again
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α⊃system␈α⊃is␈α⊃conducive␈α⊃to␈α⊃competition.␈α⊃ Writing␈α⊃and␈α⊃storing␈α⊃a␈α⊃program␈α⊃and␈α⊃announcing␈α⊃its
␈↓ α∧␈↓availability␈α∞can␈α∞be␈α∞a␈α∞very␈α∞low␈α∞capital␈α∞operation,␈α∞and␈α∞the␈α∞system␈α∞can␈α∞collect␈α∞whatever␈α∞price␈α∞has
␈↓ α∧␈↓been set for its use.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT3. Services that can be offered soon
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTWe␈αcould␈αgo␈αon␈αlisting␈αservices␈αthat␈αwould␈αcome␈αto␈αbe␈αoffered␈αin␈αa␈αfully␈αdeveloped␈αsystem,
␈↓ α∧␈↓but␈α
now␈α
we␈α
shall␈α
list␈α
some␈α
services␈α
to␈α
smaller␈α
groups␈α
of␈α
users␈α
that␈α
are␈α
cheaper␈α
to␈α
provide␈α
and
␈↓ α∧␈↓which will help get the system started.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$3.1.␈α Calculation␈α
and␈α
facilities␈α
for␈α
writing,␈α
running,␈α
and␈α
debugging␈α
computer␈α
programs.
␈↓ α∧␈↓This␈αdoesn't␈αinterest␈αthe␈αgeneral␈αpublic␈αmuch,␈αbut␈αit␈αis␈αthe␈αpresent␈αbread␈αand␈αbutter␈αof␈αthe␈αtime-
␈↓ α∧␈↓sharing␈αservice␈αbureaus␈αthat␈αwill␈αgrow␈αinto␈αthe␈αnew␈αinformation␈αsystem.␈α At␈αpresent,␈αthese␈αservice
␈↓ α∧␈↓bureaus␈αoffer␈αvery␈αconvenient␈αway␈αof␈αdoing␈αsmall␈αscientific␈αand␈αengineering␈αcalculations,␈αbut␈αdo
␈↓ α∧␈↓not␈α
offer␈α
reasonable␈α
prices␈α
for␈α
big␈α
computations,␈α
and␈α
are␈α
only␈α
beginning␈α
to␈α
offer␈α
useful␈α
services␈α
to
␈↓ α∧␈↓business firms.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$3.2.␈αMessages.␈α
The␈α
cost␈α
of␈α
mail␈α
service␈α
is␈α
going␈αsteadily␈α
up␈α
and␈α
its␈α
quality␈α
is␈α
going
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu10␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓steadily␈α
down.␈α
Already␈α
a␈α
letter␈α
costs␈α
more␈α
to␈α
send␈α
than␈α
a␈α
local␈α
telephone␈α
call.␈α
The␈α
ability␈α
to␈α
send
␈↓ α∧␈↓a␈αwritten␈αmessage␈αthat␈αwill␈αbe␈αseen␈αthe␈αnext␈αtime␈αa␈αuser␈αsits␈αdown␈αat␈αhis␈αcomputer␈αterminal␈αhas
␈↓ α∧␈↓proved␈αvery␈αconvenient␈αto␈αusers␈αof␈αthe␈αDefense␈αDepartment␈αsponsored␈αARPA␈αnet.␈α Already,␈αif␈αI
␈↓ α∧␈↓type␈α"MAIL␈αMINSKY%MIT-AI␈αWhen␈αare␈αyou␈αcoming␈αto␈αCalifornia␈αnext?",␈αthe␈αmessage␈α"When
␈↓ α∧␈↓are␈α
you␈α
coming␈α
to␈α
California␈α
next?"␈α
will␈α
be␈α
received␈α
by␈α
Minsky␈α
at␈α
M.I.T.␈α
the␈α
next␈α
time␈α
he␈α
uses␈α
his
␈↓ α∧␈↓terminal.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$3.3.␈α∩ Editing.␈α∩ Anyone␈α∩who␈α∩writes␈α∩(writers,␈α∩journalists,␈α∩scientists,␈α∩advertising␈α∩men,
␈↓ α∧␈↓engineers␈α
and␈αstudents)␈αwill␈αbenefit␈αfrom␈αusing␈αan␈αeditor␈αprogram.␈α It␈α
allows␈αeasy␈αrevision,␈αcan␈αbe
␈↓ α∧␈↓made␈αto␈α
check␈α
spelling,␈α
grammar,␈α
and␈α
punctuation,␈α
and␈α
will␈αproduce␈α
justified␈α
or␈α
other␈α
forms␈α
of
␈↓ α∧␈↓elegant␈α∃output␈α∃and␈α∃also␈α∃indexes.␈α∃ This␈α∃paper␈α∃was␈α∃edited␈α∃on␈α∃the␈α∃computer␈α∃including␈α∃the
␈↓ α∧␈↓specification␈α⊃of␈α⊃␈↓αprinting␈↓␈α⊃␈↓↓in␈↓␈α⊃␈↓↓several␈↓␈α⊃␈↓¬type␈α⊃fonts␈↓.␈α⊃ The␈α⊃document␈α⊃is␈α⊃stored␈α⊃on␈α⊃disk␈α⊃at␈α⊃the
␈↓ α∧␈↓Stanford␈α
Artificial␈α
Intelligence␈α
Laboratory,␈α
and␈α
any␈α
user␈α
of␈α
the␈α
ARPA␈α
net␈α
can␈α
access␈α
the␈α
latest
␈↓ α∧␈↓version using the name HOTER.ESS[W76,JMC]@SU-AI.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$3.4.␈α
Filing.␈α
Keeping␈α
personal␈α
files␈α
in␈α
the␈α
computer␈α
has␈α
great␈α
advantages,␈α
but␈α
some␈α
of
␈↓ α∧␈↓them␈α
must␈α
await␈α
the␈α
ability␈α
to␈α
enter␈α
other␈α
people's␈α
documents␈α
without␈α
retyping␈α
them.␈α
If␈α
they␈α
have
␈↓ α∧␈↓been␈α
prepared␈α
in␈α
a␈α
computer␈α
readable␈α
form,␈α
it␈α
is␈α
easy,␈α
but␈α
someday␈α
a␈α
suitable␈α
page␈α
reader␈α
will␈α
be
␈↓ α∧␈↓available.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$3.5.␈αEducation.␈α Computer␈αaided␈αinstruction␈α(CAI)␈αhas␈αadvanced␈αto␈αthe␈αpoint␈αthat␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓number␈α
of␈α
courses␈α
or␈α
aids␈α
to␈α
traditional␈α
courses␈α
have␈α
been␈α
developed␈α
and␈α
have␈α
been␈α
shown␈α
to␈α
be
␈↓ α∧␈↓useful.␈α
The␈α
main␈α
obstacle␈α
to␈α
the␈α
widespread␈α
use␈α
of␈α
CAI␈α
is␈α
economic,␈α
but␈α
new␈α
developments␈α
in
␈↓ α∧␈↓display␈α⊂technology␈α⊂and␈α⊂communications␈α⊂give␈α⊂a␈α⊂reasonable␈α⊂probability␈α⊂of␈α⊂cost-effective␈α⊂systems
␈↓ α∧␈↓within␈α
this␈α
decade.␈α
There␈α
is␈α
no␈α
special␈α
problem␈α
in␈α
having␈α
these␈α
systems␈α
available␈α
in␈α
the␈α
home␈α
as
␈↓ α∧␈↓well␈α∞as␈α∞at␈α∞school.␈α∞ This␈α∞would␈α∞be␈α∞aided␈α∞by␈α∞standardizing␈α∞course␈α∞writing␈α∞languages.␈α∞ Again,␈α∞we
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu11␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓should␈α
try␈α
to␈α
stimulate␈α
competition␈α
by␈α
encouraging␈α
the␈α
offering␈α
of␈α
courses␈α
in␈α
particular␈α
subjects
␈↓ α∧␈↓independent of the schools.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α
development␈α
of␈α
information␈α
utilities␈α
is␈α
probably␈α
inevitable␈α
(unless␈α
it␈α
is␈α
forbidden␈α
by
␈↓ α∧␈↓law)␈α⊂as␈α⊂soon␈α⊂as␈α⊂costs␈α⊂come␈α⊂down␈α⊂to␈α⊂the␈α⊂point␈α⊂where␈α⊂it␈α⊂is␈α⊂profitable␈α⊂for␈α⊂time-sharing␈α⊂service
␈↓ α∧␈↓bureaus␈αto␈αoffer␈αservices␈αto␈αindividuals.␈α However,␈αfavorable␈αpolicies␈αwill␈αbring␈αthis␈αabout␈αsooner
␈↓ α∧␈↓and will make the effects better.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTBetween␈α
us␈α
and␈α
the␈α
home␈α
information␈α
system␈α
lie␈α
a␈α
number␈α
of␈α
problems,␈α
some␈α
in␈α
developing
␈↓ α∧␈↓suitable␈α∀low␈α∀cost␈α∀terminals,␈α∀some␈α∀in␈α∀programming␈α∀technology␈α∀of␈α∀time-sharing,␈α∀some␈α∀in␈α∀the
␈↓ α∧␈↓economics␈α∂and␈α∂politics␈α∂of␈α∂communication␈α∂systems,␈α∂and␈α∂some␈α∂in␈α∂the␈α∂attitude␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂public␈α∂and
␈↓ α∧␈↓government towards innovation. In the following sections we shall discuss these problems.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ ∧␈HOW WE GET THERE FROM HERE
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT1. Terminals
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈αquality␈αand␈αprice␈αof␈αdisplay␈αconsoles␈αis␈αrapidly␈αimproving.␈αAt␈αpresent,␈αone␈αcan␈αadd␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓display␈αconsole␈αwith␈αkeyboard␈αto␈αour␈αlaboratory␈αsystem␈αfor␈αabout␈α$500,␈αand␈αto␈αadd␈αanother␈αport
␈↓ α∧␈↓on␈α
the␈α
system␈α
so␈α
that␈α
the␈α
number␈α
of␈α
consoles␈α
active␈α
at␈α
one␈α
time␈α
is␈α
increased␈α
by␈α
one␈α
costs␈α
about
␈↓ α∧␈↓$1000.␈α A␈αreasonable␈αdisplay␈αconsole␈αthat␈αcan␈αbe␈αlocated␈αat␈αthe␈αend␈αof␈αa␈αtelephone␈αline␈αnow␈αcosts
␈↓ α∧␈↓about␈α⊂$3,000.␈α⊂These␈α⊂consoles␈α⊂are␈α⊂adequate␈α⊂for␈α⊂any␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂services␈α⊂mentioned␈α⊂in␈α⊂the␈α⊂previous
␈↓ α∧␈↓sections,␈αalthough␈αfor␈αreading␈αpurposes,␈αit␈αwould␈αbe␈αdesirable␈αto␈αbe␈αable␈αto␈αdisplay␈αmore␈αthan␈α35
␈↓ α∧␈↓typed lines at a time.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTIn␈α
my␈α
opinion,␈α
the␈α
cost␈α
of␈α
a␈α
display␈α
terminal␈α
adequate␈α
for␈α
extensive␈α
reading␈α
that␈α
can␈α
be
␈↓ α∧␈↓located␈αat␈αthe␈αend␈αof␈αa␈αtelephone␈αline␈αwill␈αbe␈αin␈αthe␈α$500␈αto␈α$1000␈αrange␈αby␈α1980␈αeven␈αwithout␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓market␈αof␈αthe␈αsize␈αof␈αthe␈αpotential␈αhome␈αterminal␈αmarket.␈α The␈αbusiness,␈αengineering,␈αscience,␈αand
␈↓ α∧␈↓government markets will be large enough and price sensitive enough to bring this about.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu12␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT2. Communications
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTFacilities␈α
for␈α
digital␈α
communications␈α
are␈α
growing␈α
rapidly␈α
but␈α
in␈α
a␈α
disorderly␈α
way␈α
because␈α
of
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α∞multiplicity␈α∞of␈α∞requirements␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∞different␈α∞applications.␈α∞ Thus␈α∞credit␈α∞verification␈α∞requires
␈↓ α∧␈↓very␈αlow␈αcost␈αshort␈αcommunications␈αwith␈αturn␈αaround␈αtimes␈αof␈αseconds.␈α Other␈αuses␈αrequire␈αvery
␈↓ α∧␈↓low␈α
cost␈α
per␈α
bit␈α
but␈α
can␈α
stand␈α
delays␈α
of␈α
minutes␈α
and␈α
hence␈α
are␈α
candidates␈α
for␈α
low␈α
performance
␈↓ α∧␈↓store␈αand␈αforward␈αsystems.␈α Terminal␈αsystems␈αneed␈αlong␈αholding␈αtimes,␈αshort␈αresponse␈αtimes,␈αand
␈↓ α∧␈↓much higher transmission rates from computer to user than in the other direction.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈αspeeds␈αof␈αtransmission␈αover␈αpresent␈αunconditioned␈αvoice␈αgrade␈αcircuits␈αare␈αlower␈αthan
␈↓ α∧␈↓one␈αwould␈αlike␈αfor␈αreading.␈α 1200␈αbits␈αper␈αsecond␈αtakes␈α20␈αseconds␈αto␈αtransmit␈αa␈αtyped␈αpage␈αand
␈↓ α∧␈↓four␈α
times␈α
that␈α
for␈α
a␈α
page␈α
of␈α
a␈α
dictionary.␈α
9600␈α
bits␈α
per␈α
second␈α
is␈α
obtained␈α
over␈α
conditioned␈α
voice
␈↓ α∧␈↓grade␈αlines,␈αand␈αthis␈αmay␈αbe␈αadequate.␈α Another␈αposibility␈αis␈αthe␈αtransmission␈αtechnology␈αplanned
␈↓ α∧␈↓for␈αthe␈αPicturephone␈αservice,␈αbut␈αthe␈αcost␈αof␈αthis␈αservice␈αfor␈αlong␈αholding␈αtimes␈αis␈αnot␈αclear.␈α The
␈↓ α∧␈↓most␈α
economical␈α
system␈α
might␈α
be␈α
a␈α
specially␈α
designed␈α
store␈α
and␈α
forward␈α
system␈α
configured␈α
to␈α
give
␈↓ α∧␈↓fast turn around for short messages.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT3. Computer technology
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTComputer␈α∩technology␈α∩can␈α∩now␈α∩offer␈α∩the␈α∩services␈α⊃required␈α∩for␈α∩the␈α∩home␈α∩terminal␈α∩at␈α∩a
␈↓ α∧␈↓reasonable␈α∀cost,␈α∀provided␈α∀computer␈α∀configurations␈α∀are␈α∀optimized␈α∀for␈α∀the␈α∀purpose,␈α∀provided
␈↓ α∧␈↓reasonable␈α∞load␈α∞factors␈α∞can␈α∞be␈α∞obtained,␈α∞and␈α∞provided␈α∞there␈α∞are␈α∞reasonable␈α∞economies␈α∞of␈α∞scale.
␈↓ α∧␈↓Unfortunately,␈αIBM␈αcomputers␈αare␈αorganized␈αin␈αsuch␈αa␈αway␈αthat␈αtime␈αsharing␈αis␈αvery␈αexpensive
␈↓ α∧␈↓because␈αof␈αtheir␈αinterrupt␈αstructure,␈αtheir␈αexpensive␈αterminal␈αmultiplexors,␈αand␈αtheir␈αdedication␈αto
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α∀archaic␈α∀half␈α∀duplex␈α∀method␈α∀of␈α∀communication,␈α∀and␈α∀their␈α∀giant,␈α∀inefficient␈α∀and␈α∀almost
␈↓ α∧␈↓unchangable␈αoperating␈αsystems.␈α The␈αother␈αmajor␈αcomputer␈αmanufacturers␈αsuch␈αas␈αCDC,␈αGeneral
␈↓ α∧␈↓Electric,␈α
and␈α
Univac␈α
are␈α
not␈α
in␈α
much␈α
better␈α
shape␈α
since␈α
they␈α
offer␈α
for␈α
time-sharing,␈α
machines␈α
that
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu13␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓were␈α∩optimized␈α∩for␈α∩other␈α∩purposes.␈α∩ Smaller␈α∩companies␈α∩like␈α∩DEC␈α∩are␈α∩in␈α∩a␈α∩somewhat␈α∩better
␈↓ α∧␈↓position.␈α However,␈αnone␈αof␈αthese␈αdifficulties␈αare␈αpermanent,␈αand␈αbetter␈αorganized␈αcomputers␈αmay
␈↓ α∧␈↓be␈α∂expected␈α∂once␈α∂the␈α∂factors␈α∂in␈α∂computer␈α∂design␈α∂that␈α∂make␈α∂for␈α∂good␈α∂cost-performance␈α∂in␈α∂time
␈↓ α∧␈↓sharing␈α
become␈α
clearer␈α
to␈α
the␈α
manufacturers.␈α
(The␈α
non-technical␈α
reader␈α
is␈α
warned␈α
that␈α
the␈α
above
␈↓ α∧␈↓views are most likely controversial).
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTPresent␈αmagnetic␈αdisk␈αstorage␈αunits␈αare␈αcost-effective␈αfor␈αinformation␈αutilities␈αserving␈αhome
␈↓ α∧␈↓terminals.␈α⊂ A␈α⊂cheap␈α⊂imitation␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂IBM␈α⊂3330/11␈α⊂disk␈α⊂costs␈α⊂about␈α⊂$16.00␈α⊂at␈α⊂the␈α⊂margin␈α⊂for
␈↓ α∧␈↓storing␈αa␈αbook␈αusing␈αtwo-to-one␈αinformation␈αcompression.␈α This␈αis␈αfine␈αfor␈αpersonal␈αfiles␈αand␈αfor
␈↓ α∧␈↓libraries␈αprovided␈αwe␈αcan␈αmake␈αone␈αon-line␈αcopy␈αreplace␈αseveral␈αpaper␈αcopies.␈α This␈αis␈αstill␈αrather
␈↓ α∧␈↓expensive for private copies of books.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTDisk␈α
files␈α
are␈α
continuing␈α
to␈α
increase␈α
in␈α
cost-effectiveness,␈α
and␈α
much␈α
larger␈α
storage␈α
media␈α
are
␈↓ α∧␈↓being promoted.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT4. Computer programming
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α basic␈α
technology␈α
of␈α
time-sharing␈α
is␈α
reasonably␈α
well␈α
developed,␈α
and␈α
cost-effective␈α
systems
␈↓ α∧␈↓have␈α∞been␈α∞written,␈α∞but␈α∞there␈α∞is␈α∞still␈α∞a␈α∞lot␈α∞of␈α∞chasing␈α∞of␈α∞will-o'-the-wisps,␈α∞and␈α∞bad␈α∞time-sharing
␈↓ α∧␈↓systems␈αare␈αoften␈αproduced␈αby␈αotherwise␈αcompetent␈αorganizations.␈α The␈αcosts␈αof␈αthe␈αprogramming
␈↓ α∧␈↓to␈α
offer␈α
the␈α
services␈α
mentioned␈α
in␈α
the␈α
first␈α
part␈α
of␈α
this␈α
paper␈α
can␈α
be␈α
much␈α
reduced␈α
by␈α
further
␈↓ α∧␈↓advances in programming such as:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$4.1.␈α
The␈α
interactive␈α
and␈α
file␈α
reference␈α
aspects␈α
of␈α
programming␈α
languages␈α
and␈α
time-
␈↓ α∧␈↓sharing␈α
systems␈α
need␈α
to␈α
be␈α
standardized␈α
so␈α
that␈α
an␈α
interactive␈α
system␈α
written␈α
in␈α
one␈α
system␈α
can␈α
be
␈↓ α∧␈↓used␈αin␈αanother␈αthat␈αuses␈αdifferent␈αhardware␈αand␈αa␈αdifferent␈αtime␈αsharing␈αsystem.␈αWithout␈αthis␈αit
␈↓ α∧␈↓will␈α∂be␈α∂very␈α∂expensive␈α∂for␈α∂new␈α∂user␈α∂services␈α∂to␈α∂get␈α∂large␈α∂markets␈α∂unless␈α∂some␈α∂particular␈α∂time
␈↓ α∧␈↓sharing system gets a monopoly.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu14␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$4.2.␈α∞ A␈α∞system␈α∞needs␈α∞to␈α∞be␈α∞developed␈α∞for␈α∞representing␈α∞text␈α∞in␈α∞a␈α∞computer␈α∞that␈α∞will
␈↓ α∧␈↓include␈α⊂the␈α⊂full␈α⊂variety␈α⊂of␈α⊂alphabets,␈α⊂type␈α⊂fonts␈α⊂and␈α⊂character␈α⊂sizes␈α⊂and␈α⊂also␈α⊂be␈α⊂adaptable␈α⊂to
␈↓ α∧␈↓diagrams,␈α∞drawings␈α∞and␈α∞photographs.␈α∞ The␈α∞consoles␈α∞also␈α∞have␈α∞to␈α∞be␈α∞adapted␈α∞to␈α∞this␈α∞variety␈α∞of
␈↓ α∧␈↓styles.␈α
This␈α
is␈α
an␈α
ultimate␈α
requirement;␈α
much␈α
can␈α
be␈α
done␈α
with␈α
texts␈α
that␈α
are␈α
just␈α
regarded␈α
as
␈↓ α∧␈↓sequences of latin letters.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$4.3. The biggest task, however, is the application programming itself.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT5. Commercial organization
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTFortunately,␈α∂time-sharing␈α∂services␈α∂are␈α∂not␈α∂a␈α∂natural␈α∂monopoly.␈α∂ Communication␈α∂is␈α∂cheap
␈↓ α∧␈↓enough␈αfor␈αteletype␈αbased␈αtime-sharing␈αso␈αthat␈αwith␈αlocal␈αmultiplexors,␈αtime-sharing␈αbureaus␈αcan
␈↓ α∧␈↓compete␈α⊃all␈α⊃over␈α⊃the␈α⊃United␈α⊃States.␈α⊃ In␈α⊃principal,␈α⊃it␈α⊃should␈α⊃be␈α⊃possible␈α⊃to␈α⊃have␈α⊃world␈α⊃wide
␈↓ α∧␈↓competition.␈α∞ The␈α∞major␈α∞developments␈α∞that␈α∞may␈α∞reduce␈α∞competition␈α∞are␈α∞(i)␈α∞if␈α∞the␈α∞terminals␈α∞are
␈↓ α∧␈↓supplied␈αby␈αthe␈αinformation␈αutility␈αand␈αcannot␈αbe␈αused␈αwith␈αthat␈αutility's␈αcompetitors;␈αand␈α(ii)␈αif
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈αutility␈αonly␈αallows␈αits␈αsubscribers␈αto␈αuse␈αits␈αown␈αprograms␈αand␈αdata␈αfiles.␈α Therefore,␈αthe␈αusers
␈↓ α∧␈↓should␈α
own␈α
their␈α
own␈α
terminals,␈α
and␈α
the␈α
ownership␈α
of␈α
programs␈α
performing␈α
services␈α
should␈α
be
␈↓ α∧␈↓separate␈α
from␈α
the␈α
ownership␈α
of␈α
the␈α
service␈α
bureaus␈α
themselves.␈α
It␈α
is␈α
important␈α
to␈α
have␈α
enough
␈↓ α∧␈↓compatibility␈αbetween␈αdifferent␈αtime-sharing␈αsystems␈αso␈αthat␈αthe␈αowner␈αof␈αa␈αservice␈αprogram␈αcan
␈↓ α∧␈↓provide␈αit␈α
on␈α
a␈α
number␈α
of␈α
machines.␈α
It␈α
is␈αalso␈α
important␈α
that␈α
important␈α
files␈α
be␈α
accessible␈α
and
␈↓ α∧␈↓modifiable␈α⊂with␈α⊂suitable␈α⊂protections␈α⊂by␈α⊂actions␈α⊂initiated␈α∂on␈α⊂other␈α⊂machines␈α⊂than␈α⊂the␈α⊂one␈α⊂that
␈↓ α∧␈↓maintains the file.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT6. Needs for research and development
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α
hardware␈α
required␈α
for␈α
home␈α
consoles␈α
will␈α
be␈α
too␈α
expensive␈α
for␈α
extensive␈α
systems␈α
for
␈↓ α∧␈↓probably␈α
another␈α
five␈α
years.␈α
In␈α
the␈α
meantime,␈α
research␈α
and␈α
development␈α
should␈α
be␈α
undertaken␈α
in
␈↓ α∧␈↓the following areas:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu15␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$6.1. Standardization of the interfaces of time-sharing systems and their languages.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$6.2.␈α Experimentation␈αwith␈αservices.␈α At␈αpresent,␈αit␈αis␈αvery␈αdifficult␈αto␈αget␈αsupport␈αfor
␈↓ α∧␈↓development␈α
of␈α∞generally␈α∞useful␈α∞services␈α∞unless␈α∞either␈α∞it␈α∞can␈α
be␈α∞claimed␈α∞that␈α∞disaster␈α∞will␈α∞result
␈↓ α∧␈↓from␈αfailure␈αto␈αsupport␈αthe␈αactivity␈αor␈αthat␈αthe␈αsupporting␈αorganization␈αwill␈αitself␈αmake␈αa␈αprofit.
␈↓ α∧␈↓This␈αpolitical␈αfact␈αis␈αone␈αof␈αthe␈αreasons␈αfor␈αthe␈αconcentration␈αon␈αmilitary␈αtechnology␈αin␈αthe␈αrecent
␈↓ α∧␈↓past.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$6.3.␈α⊃Research␈α⊃aimed␈α⊃at␈α⊃devising␈α⊃ways␈α⊃of␈α⊃co-ordinating␈α⊃the␈α⊃great␈α⊃variety␈α⊃of␈α⊃time-
␈↓ α∧␈↓sharing␈α∞services␈α∞into␈α∞a␈α∞mutually␈α∞communicating␈α∞network.␈α∞ Neither␈α∞sufficient␈α∞understanding␈α∞nor
␈↓ α∧␈↓sufficient␈α⊃political␈α⊃or␈α⊃commercial␈α⊃force␈α⊃is␈α⊃available␈α⊃to␈α⊃cause␈α⊃the␈α⊃development␈α⊃of␈α⊃time-sharing
␈↓ α∧␈↓services␈α
to␈α
proceed␈α
according␈α
to␈α
a␈α
unified␈α
plan.␈α
Nevertheless,␈α
computers␈α
are␈α
flexible␈α
enough␈α
so
␈↓ α∧␈↓that␈α
originally␈α
incompatible␈α
systems␈α
can␈α
be␈α
made␈α
to␈α
communicate␈α
and␈α
use␈α
each␈α
other's␈α
services.
␈↓ α∧␈↓Experiments␈α
with␈α
the␈α
ARPA␈α
network␈α
that␈α
provides␈α
communication␈α
among␈α
Defense␈α
Department
␈↓ α∧␈↓sponsored research computers are providing useful information.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT7. Social issues
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$7.1.␈α→Government␈α→created␈α→monopoly␈α→-␈α→most␈α→likely␈α→inadvertent.␈α→ If␈α→government
␈↓ α∧␈↓regulations␈αremain␈αas␈αthey␈αare␈αin␈αMay␈α1976,␈αhome␈αterminals␈αcan␈αdevelop␈αin␈αa␈αfreely␈αcompetitive
␈↓ α∧␈↓manner.␈α The␈αfamous␈αCarterphone␈αdecision␈αand␈αits␈αextensions␈αpermitting␈αconnection␈αof␈αarbitrary
␈↓ α∧␈↓devices␈αmeeting␈αnon-interference␈αstandards␈αto␈αthe␈αtelephone␈αsystem␈αis␈αexactly␈αwhat␈αis␈αrequired␈αfor
␈↓ α∧␈↓home␈α∂terminals.␈α∂ However,␈α∂there␈α∂are␈α∂several␈α∂dangers.␈α∂ First␈α∂the␈α∂new␈α∂communication␈α∂companies
␈↓ α∧␈↓want␈αto␈αget␈αa␈αshare␈αof␈αthe␈αdata␈αcommunication␈αbusiness␈αfrom␈αAT&T,␈αand␈αthis␈αmay␈αwell␈αtake␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓form␈α∞of␈α∞separating␈α∞a␈α∞share␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∞present␈α∞market␈α∞legally,␈α∞and␈α∞prescribing␈α∞who␈α∞may␈α∞offer␈α∞what
␈↓ α∧␈↓services.␈α
Since␈α
home␈α
terminal␈α
services␈α
don't␈α
exist␈α
yet,␈α
it␈α
may␈α
turn␈α
out␈α
that␈α
no-one␈α
is␈α
allowed␈α
to
␈↓ α∧␈↓offer␈α⊃the␈α⊃communications␈α⊃they␈α⊃require.␈α⊃ Second,␈α⊃some␈α⊃planners␈α⊃have␈α⊃a␈α⊃limited␈α⊃view␈α⊃of␈α⊃what
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu16␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓services␈α
are␈α
possible,␈α
and␈α
want␈α
to␈α
provide␈α
them␈α
through␈α
a␈α
system␈α
based␈α
on␈α
CATV␈α
which␈α
has␈α
the
␈↓ α∧␈↓side␈α
effect␈α
of␈α
making␈α
home␈α
terminals␈α
a␈α
local␈α
monopoly␈α
of␈α
the␈α
CATV␈α
operator.␈α
Thirdly,␈α
there␈α
are
␈↓ α∧␈↓proposals␈α(␈↓↓New␈αYork␈αTimes␈↓␈αeditorial␈αof␈αApril␈α,␈α1976),␈αto␈αmake␈αelectronic␈αmail␈αa␈αmonopoly␈αof␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓Postal␈α⊃Service.␈α⊃ This␈α⊃is␈α⊃the␈α⊃most␈α⊃pernicious␈α⊂of␈α⊃all,␈α⊃because␈α⊃it␈α⊃requires␈α⊃splitting␈α⊃off␈α⊃a␈α⊃service
␈↓ α∧␈↓analogous␈α∂to␈α∂present␈α∂mail␈α∂service␈α∂and␈α∂preventing␈α∂anyone␈α∂except␈α∂the␈α∂assigned␈α∂monopolist␈α∂from
␈↓ α∧␈↓offering any service that includes it.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTNot␈αeveryone␈αwill␈αagree␈αwith␈αthe␈αpicture␈αof␈αhome␈αterminal␈αservices␈αgiven␈αin␈αthis␈αpaper,␈αbut
␈↓ α∧␈↓I␈α∀hope␈α∀we␈α∀can␈α∀agree␈α∀that␈α∀this␈α∀and␈α∀similar␈α∀ideas␈α∀shouldn't␈α∀be␈α∀precluded␈α∀by␈α∀creating␈α∀new
␈↓ α∧␈↓monopolies.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$7.2.␈α∞Who␈α∞will␈α∞get␈α∞it␈α∞first?␈α∞ I␈α∞think␈α∞it␈α∞must␈α∞be␈α∞accepted␈α∞that␈α∞the␈α∞first␈α∞subscribers␈α∞of
␈↓ α∧␈↓information␈α∀utilities␈α∀will␈α∀be␈α∀well-to-do␈α∀people␈α∀with␈α∀particular␈α∀inclinations␈α∀in␈α∀that␈α∀direction.
␈↓ α∧␈↓Fortunately,␈α a␈α
telephone␈α
based␈α
system␈α
doesn't␈α
need␈α
a␈α
large␈α
fraction␈α
of␈α
the␈α households␈α
in␈α
an␈α
area␈α
as
␈↓ α∧␈↓subscribers␈αin␈αorder␈αto␈αmake␈αmoney.␈α Moreover,␈αthe␈αcosts␈αof␈αthe␈αservices␈αin␈αa␈αmature␈αtechnology
␈↓ α∧␈↓will␈α
be␈α
low␈α
enough␈α
so␈α
that␈α
after␈α
the␈α
rich␈α
have␈α
paid␈α
the␈α
start-up␈α
costs,␈α
everyone␈α
at␈α
an␈α
economic
␈↓ α∧␈↓level to afford a car will also be able to afford home terminal service.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$7.3.␈αPrivacy␈αand␈αsecurity.␈α It␈αis␈αeasy␈αto␈αhave␈αfantasies␈αabout␈αthe␈αgovernment␈αor␈αother
␈↓ α∧␈↓large␈α∂organizations␈α∂establishing␈α∂a␈α∂dictatorship␈α∂through␈α∂their␈α∂access␈α∂to␈α∂everyone's␈α∂personal␈α∂data
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α⊃people␈α⊃doing␈α⊃each␈α⊃other␈α⊃in␈α⊃with␈α⊃information␈α⊃gained␈α⊃from␈α⊃computerized␈α⊃spying.␈α⊃ In␈α⊃my
␈↓ α∧␈↓opinion,␈αthe␈αsource␈αof␈αdictatorship␈αisn't␈αinformation␈αbut␈αa␈αmonopoly␈αon␈αforce␈αand␈αthe␈αwill␈αto␈αuse
␈↓ α∧␈↓it.␈α∞ In␈α∞time-sharing␈α∞systems␈α∞in␈α∞which␈α∞security␈α∞measures␈α∞have␈α∞been␈α∞installed␈α∞only␈α∞in␈α∞response␈α∞to
␈↓ α∧␈↓actual misuse, rather little has been required.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTHowever,␈αmuch␈αhigher␈αdegrees␈αof␈αprivacy␈αand␈αsecurity␈αcan␈αbe␈αachieved␈αwith␈αcomputerized
␈↓ α∧␈↓systems␈α⊂than␈α⊂with␈α⊂manual␈α⊂information␈α⊂systems.␈α⊂ People␈α⊂can␈α⊂encrypt␈α⊂their␈α⊂private␈α⊂information,
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu17␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓each␈α
use␈α
of␈α
a␈α
file␈α
containing␈α
personal␈α
data␈α
can␈α
be␈α
recorded␈α
in␈α
the␈α
file,␈α
and␈α
the␈α
systems␈α
that␈α
ensure
␈↓ α∧␈↓all this can be subject to audit by any organization concerned with protecting privacy.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$7.4.␈α∀Who␈α∀will␈α∀convert␈α∀the␈α∀existing␈α∀literature?␈α∀ Some␈α∀writings␈α∀are␈α∀have␈α∀current
␈↓ α∧␈↓copyrights,␈α
and␈α
some␈α
are␈α
in␈α
the␈α
public␈α
domain.␈α
It␈α
would␈α
seem␈α
that␈α
copyright␈α
owners␈α
should␈α
have
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α∞option␈α∞of␈α∞converting␈α∞their␈α∞property␈α∞and␈α∞owning␈α∞the␈α∞result.␈α∞ Material␈α∞in␈α∞the␈α∞public␈α∞domain
␈↓ α∧␈↓could␈αeither␈αbe␈αconverted␈αby␈αthe␈αgovernment␈αor␈αby␈αwhoever␈αthinks␈αthe␈αpublic␈αwill␈αpay␈αto␈αlook␈αat
␈↓ α∧␈↓what␈α∩he␈α∩chooses␈α∩to␈α∩convert.␈α∩ I␈α∩will␈α∩confess␈α∩a␈α∩preference␈α∩for␈α∩a␈α∩systematic␈α∩project␈α∩to␈α∩convert
␈↓ α∧␈↓everything.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$7.5.␈α∂What␈α∂about␈α∂unauthorized␈α∂copying?␈α∂ It␈α∂is␈α∂very␈α∂difficult␈α∂even␈α∂today␈α∂to␈α∂prevent
␈↓ α∧␈↓unauthorized␈α
copying␈α
of␈α
very␈α
high␈α
priced␈α
material.␈α
Below␈α
a␈α
certain␈α
level␈α
of␈α
price,␈α
it␈α
is␈α
cheaper␈α
to
␈↓ α∧␈↓pay␈α
the␈α
price␈α
of␈α
access␈α
each␈α
time␈α
a␈α
document␈α
is␈α
read␈α
than␈α
to␈α
pay␈α
the␈α
storage␈α
cost␈α
of␈α
maintaining␈α
a
␈↓ α∧␈↓copy.␈α
Eventually␈α
the␈α
cost␈α
of␈α
storage␈α
compared␈α
to␈α
the␈α
socially␈α
desirable␈α
rewards␈α
of␈α
authorship␈α
may
␈↓ α∧␈↓get␈α
so␈α
small␈α
that␈α
storing␈α
unauthorized␈α
copies␈α
may␈α
become␈α
profitable.␈α
The␈α
limiting␈α
situation␈α
is␈α
one
␈↓ α∧␈↓in␈α
which␈α
authors␈α
have␈α
to␈α
be␈α
paid␈α
like␈α
scientists␈α
for␈α
their␈α
work␈α
in␈α
producing␈α
the␈α
material␈α
after
␈↓ α∧␈↓which␈αthe␈αresults␈αare␈αfreely␈αdistributed.␈α I␈αthink␈αthis␈αday␈αshould␈αbe␈αpostponed␈αas␈αlong␈αas␈αpossible
␈↓ α∧␈↓but not at the cost of snooping in people's private files or preventing home terminals.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$7.6.␈α⊂Banking␈α⊂today␈α⊂combines␈α⊂two␈α⊂functions:␈α⊂The␈α⊂first␈α⊂is␈α⊂recording␈α⊂who␈α⊂has␈α⊂what
␈↓ α∧␈↓money␈α
and␈α
transferring␈α
it␈α
on␈α
properly␈α
authenticated␈α
demand,␈α
and␈α
the␈α
second␈α
end␈α
is␈α
borrowing
␈↓ α∧␈↓money␈α∞and␈α∞prudently␈α∞relending␈α∞it␈α∞at␈α∞higher␈α∞interest.␈α∞ The␈α∞first␈α∞function␈α∞may␈α∞well␈α∞be␈α∞a␈α∞natural
␈↓ α∧␈↓monopoly␈α⊂in␈α⊂an␈α⊂electronic␈α⊂system␈α⊂and␈α⊂the␈α⊂second␈α⊂definitely␈α⊂is␈α⊂not.␈α⊂ Therefore␈α⊂it␈α⊂may␈α⊂become
␈↓ α∧␈↓necessary␈αto␈αseparate␈αthese␈αfunctions.␈α Once␈αthey␈αare␈αseparated,␈αthe␈αcompetition␈αin␈αborrowing␈αand
␈↓ α∧␈↓relending␈αmoney␈αcan␈αbecome␈αmore␈αeffectively␈αnationwide.␈α Legislative␈αaction␈αwill␈αbe␈αnecessary␈αto
␈↓ α∧␈↓separate these two functions.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu18␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ βzSOME RELEVANT EXPERIENCE AND EXPERIMENTS
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α∂Stanford␈α∂Artificial␈α∂Intelligence␈α∂Laboratory␈α∂has␈α∂had␈α∂a␈α∂time-sharing␈α∂computer␈α∂system
␈↓ α∧␈↓since␈α
1965.␈α
Since␈α
1971␈α
we␈α
have␈α
had␈α
keyboard␈α
and␈α
display␈α
terminals␈α
in␈α
all␈α
offices␈α
including␈α
those
␈↓ α∧␈↓of␈α
secretaries␈α
and␈α
our␈α
business␈α
manager;␈α
this␈α
is␈α
still␈α
rather␈α
uncommon,␈α
because␈α
most␈α
organizations
␈↓ α∧␈↓are␈α
committed␈αto␈αunnecessarily␈αexpensive␈αtechnologies.␈α Since␈α1972␈αour␈αcomputer␈αhas␈α
been␈αpart␈αof
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈αARPA␈αNetwork␈αthat␈αconnects␈αabout␈α60␈αlaboratories␈αand␈αother␈αinstallations␈αsupported␈αby␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓Defense Department.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α∞main␈α∞use␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∞Laboratory's␈α∞computer␈α∞system␈α∞is␈α∞research␈α∞programming␈α∞in␈α∞artificial
␈↓ α∧␈↓intelligence␈αwhich␈αis␈αnot␈αwhat␈αmost␈αcitizens␈αwill␈αuse␈αtheir␈αhome␈αterminals␈αfor.␈α However,␈αwe␈αalso
␈↓ α∧␈↓use␈α∪it␈α∪for␈α∪writing,␈α∪editing␈α∪and␈α∩storing␈α∪reports,␈α∪for␈α∪exchanging␈α∪messages,␈α∪and␈α∪as␈α∪an␈α∪aid␈α∪in
␈↓ α∧␈↓administering␈αour␈αproject␈αand␈αfacilities,␈αand␈αsome␈αof␈αthis␈αexperience␈αis␈αrelevant␈αto␈αhome␈αterminal
␈↓ α∧␈↓use. Here are some of our conclusions:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT1.␈α
Office␈αand␈αhome␈αuse␈αof␈αcomputers␈αwill␈αdepend␈αdecisively␈αon␈α
convenience,␈αand␈αa␈αterminal
␈↓ α∧␈↓in each office is an absolute necessity.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT2.␈α∪Inexperience␈α∪in␈α∪typing␈α∪is␈α∪a␈α∪psychological␈α∪hazard␈α∪for␈α∪people␈α∪contemplating␈α∪using␈α∪a
␈↓ α∧␈↓computer, but it is not a practical barrier even for people who have never touched a typewriter.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT3.␈α∂The␈α∂human␈α∂engineering␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂time-sharing␈α∂system␈α∂and␈α∂especially␈α∂the␈α∂editor␈α∂program
␈↓ α∧␈↓very␈α⊃important␈α⊃if␈α⊃the␈α⊃facilities␈α⊃are␈α⊃to␈α⊃be␈α⊃used␈α⊃casually␈α⊃by␈α⊃non-computer␈α⊃people.␈α⊃ Having␈α⊃an
␈↓ α∧␈↓adequate␈α
small␈α
set␈α
of␈α
commands␈α
is␈α
very␈α
important,␈α
but␈α
additional␈α
commands␈α
for␈α
expert␈α
use␈α
are
␈↓ α∧␈↓fine␈αprovided␈αbeginners␈αand␈αcasual␈αusers␈αdon't␈αhave␈αto␈αlearn␈αthem.␈α It␈αis␈αespecially␈αimportant␈αto
␈↓ α∧␈↓keep␈αdown␈αthe␈αnumber␈αof␈αconcepts␈αthat␈αhave␈αto␈αbe␈αlearned.␈α Having␈αdone␈αall␈αthis,␈αwe␈αfind␈αthat
␈↓ α∧␈↓temporary␈αsecretaries␈αfilling␈αin␈αwhile␈αthe␈αregular␈αsecretaries␈αare␈αon␈αvacation␈αcan␈αuse␈αthe␈αeditor␈αto
␈↓ α∧␈↓prepare documents with help from regular secretaries.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu19␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
'January 27, 1987
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT4.␈α∩The␈α∩ARPA␈α∩net␈α∩has␈α∩a␈α∩facility␈α∩for␈α∩sending␈α∩messages␈α∩to␈α∩users␈α∩of␈α∩the␈α∩same␈α∩or␈α∩other
␈↓ α∧␈↓computers␈α
on␈α
the␈α
net.␈α
The␈α
user␈α
is␈α
notified␈α
of␈α
his␈α
message␈α
immediately␈α
if␈α
he␈α
is␈α
logged␈α
into␈α
his
␈↓ α∧␈↓terminal␈α
and␈α
the␈α
next␈α
time␈α
he␈α
logs␈α
in␈α
otherwise.␈α
The␈α
time␈α
required␈α
to␈α
send␈α
a␈α
message␈α
is␈α
about␈α
10
␈↓ α∧␈↓seconds␈α
plus␈α
the␈α
time␈α
required␈α
to␈α
type␈α
it.␈α
It␈α
is␈α
not␈α
clear␈α
why,␈α
but␈α
the␈α
written␈α
message␈α
system␈α
is
␈↓ α∧␈↓often␈αpreferred␈αto␈αthe␈αtelephone,␈αto␈αvisiting␈αthe␈αother␈αperson's␈αoffice␈αor␈αto␈αwritten␈αnotes.␈α Maybe
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α
reason␈α
is␈α
that␈α
each␈α
of␈α
the␈α
other␈α
procedures␈α
may␈α
be␈α
frustrating,␈α
while␈α
sending␈α
the␈α
computer
␈↓ α∧␈↓message␈αis␈αalways␈αcompleted␈αpromptly,␈αeven␈αthough␈αthe␈αrecipient␈αwon't␈αget␈αit␈αunless␈αhe␈αlogs␈αin.␈α I
␈↓ α∧␈↓receive about 100 messages per month.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT5.␈αWe␈αhave␈αan␈αexperimental␈αnews␈αservice␈αusing␈αthe␈αnational␈αnews␈αwires␈αof␈αthe␈αAssociated
␈↓ α∧␈↓Press␈α∂and␈α∂the␈α∂␈↓↓New␈α∂York␈α∂Times␈↓␈α∂news␈α∂services.␈α∂ A␈α∂user␈α∂can␈α∂type␈α∂an␈α∂expression␈α∂like␈α∂"kissinger-
␈↓ α∧␈↓moscow"␈αand␈αbe␈αtold␈αthat␈αthere␈αare␈α10␈αstories␈αcontaining␈αthe␈αword␈α"Kissinger"␈αand␈αnot␈αcontaining
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α
word␈α
"Moscow"␈α
in␈α
today's␈α
news.␈α
The␈α
user␈α
can␈α
then␈α
look␈α
at␈α
whatever␈α
stories␈α
he␈α
wants␈α
to.␈α
The
␈↓ α∧␈↓service␈α∂is␈α∂popular␈α∂in␈α∂times␈α∂of␈α∂crisis,␈α∂but␈α∂the␈α∂computer␈α∂is␈α∂heavily␈α∂loaded,␈α∂so␈α∂the␈α∂waits␈α∂between
␈↓ α∧␈↓stories␈αare␈αoften␈αunacceptably␈αlong.␈α Experience␈αwith␈αthe␈αservice␈αemphasizes␈αthe␈αshallowness␈αof␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓news␈α
coverage␈α
in␈α
which␈α
reporters␈α
file␈α
only␈α
stories␈α
likely␈α
to␈α
be␈α
chosen␈α
for␈α
a␈α
limited␈α
news␈α
space␈α
that
␈↓ α∧␈↓must contain only items judged to be of general interest.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT6.␈α∞We␈α∞also␈α∞have␈α∞two␈α∞novels␈α∞stored␈α∞on␈α∞disk,␈α∞and␈α∞it␈α∞is␈α∞quite␈α∞feasible␈α∞to␈α∞read␈α∞them␈α∞on␈α∞the
␈↓ α∧␈↓terminals.␈α
The␈α
quality␈α
is␈α
about␈α
like␈α
bad␈α
pulp␈α
paper,␈α
and␈α
two␈α
novels␈α
is␈α
not␈α
much␈α
of␈α
a␈α
library.␈α
In
␈↓ α∧␈↓compensation, the computer remembers your place.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ∧@(this draft compiled at 12:36 on January 27, 1987)
␈↓ α∧␈↓John McCarthy
␈↓ α∧␈↓Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
␈↓ α∧␈↓Stanford University
␈↓ α∧␈↓Stanford, California 94305
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu20␈↓ ∧
/FONT#0=BASL30/FONT#1=BASI30=,-.NRTYacdefghiklmnoprstuvww/FONT#2=BASB30= ,.1234567:ACDEFGHIJLMNOPRSTUVWXabcdefghilmnopqrstuvyzz/FONT#4=SUP=11/FONT#5=XMAS25=efnopstyy/FONT#6=NGR25= ',-.01289ADFINSTVWabcdefghijklmnoprstuvwyy